As Global Population Ages, Glaucoma Expected to Affect More Than 110 Million People Worldwide by 2040

The global rise in glaucoma is advancing in parallel with population aging worldwide. By 2040, this number is projected to reach 111.8 million.

FLORIANóPOLIS, SANTA CATARINA, BRAZIL, March 11, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The global rise in glaucoma is advancing in parallel with population aging worldwide. In 2013, an estimated 64.3 million people aged 40 to 80 were living with the disease. By 2040, this number is projected to reach 111.8 million, a 74% increase in less than three decades.

The warning comes from the World Glaucoma Association (WGA), which will promote World Glaucoma Week 2026, from March 8 to 14, a global initiative aimed at strengthening prevention and treatment efforts against the world’s leading cause of irreversible blindness.
The demographic foundation driving this increase lies in projections from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, which indicate substantial growth precisely within the age groups at greatest risk. In 2013, the global population aged between 40 and 80 totaled 2.33 billion people. By 2040, this figure is expected to reach 3.61 billion — an increase of approximately 1.28 billion individuals within populations most vulnerable to developing glaucoma.
One of the most alarming aspects of these projections is the high proportion of individuals living with glaucoma without a diagnosis. Approximately 50% of cases remain undetected in developed countries, a figure that may reach up to 90% in developing nations. The disease progresses silently and irreversibly and is therefore widely known as the “silent thief of sight.” Because symptoms are typically absent in early stages, many patients are diagnosed only after significant visual field loss has already occurred.

“World Glaucoma Week is a vital opportunity to shed light on a condition that threatens vision and often presents no early symptoms. It raises awareness, educates the public, and encourages regular eye examinations, because early detection can save sight,” said Miriam Kolko, Co-Chair of the WGA Patient Committee.

Prevalence
A meta-analysis combining 50 population-based studies involving individuals aged 40 to 80, published in the scientific journal Ophthalmology under the title “Global Prevalence of Glaucoma and Projections of Glaucoma Burden through 2040: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” mapped the global landscape of the disease and estimated worldwide glaucoma prevalence in this age group at 3.54%.
Among the different forms of the disease, primary open-angle glaucoma is the most common, with an estimated global prevalence of 3.05%. In practical terms, this means that roughly three out of every 100 adults live with this condition.

Primary angle-closure glaucoma shows an estimated prevalence of approximately 0.50%, equivalent to one case per 200 individuals. Considering both major primary types, between three and four people in every 100 adults may be affected by glaucoma, with prevalence increasing with age.
In both forms, damage occurs gradually to the optic nerve — the structure responsible for transmitting visual information to the brain. By the time visual field narrowing becomes noticeable, a substantial portion of vision has already been permanently lost. Unlike many other eye conditions, glaucoma-related vision loss cannot be restored. Available treatments can only slow or stabilize disease progression, preventing further deterioration.

Regional Differences
Asia, which carries the largest global glaucoma burden, has an estimated prevalence of 3.40% and accounts for approximately 60% of all cases worldwide. In 2013, around 39 million people in the region were living with the disease, a figure projected to reach 66.83 million by 2040.
Subtype distribution in the region is particularly noteworthy. Asia accounts for 53.4% of global primary open-angle glaucoma cases and 76.7% of primary angle-closure glaucoma cases. Angle-closure glaucoma represents a particularly significant public health challenge in the region, where prevalence is the highest worldwide, estimated at 1.09%.

Africa records the highest glaucoma prevalence globally among individuals aged 40 to 80, estimated at 4.79%. In 2013, the continent accounted for approximately 8.29 million cases, representing 13% of the global total. Projections indicate this number could reach 19.14 million by 2040 — the largest proportional increase worldwide during the period, at 130.8%, driven primarily by rising life expectancy.
Latin America and the Caribbean follow, with an estimated overall prevalence of 4.51% among individuals in the same age group. The region recorded 6.59 million affected individuals in 2013, with projections suggesting strong growth in the coming decades, potentially reaching 12.86 million cases by 2040 — more than doubling the current patient population.

In North America, glaucoma prevalence among individuals aged 40 to 80 is estimated at 3.55%. Primary angle-closure glaucoma shows one of the lowest prevalence rates worldwide, at 0.26%. Approximately 3.36 million people were affected in 2013, rising to 3.94 million in 2020 and projected to reach 4.72 million by 2040.

Oceania is expected to experience stable growth, with glaucoma prevalence estimated at 2.97% among individuals aged 40 to 80. The region records the lowest absolute number of cases globally, with approximately 250,000 affected individuals in 2013, increasing to 420,000 by 2040.
Europe presents the lowest overall prevalence among all analyzed macroregions, at 2.93%. Total cases reached an estimated 7.12 million in 2020 and may rise modestly to 7.85 million by 2040. Notably, angle-closure glaucoma cases are expected to remain virtually unchanged during this period.

Aging as a Key Risk Factor
Advanced age remains the most consistent risk factor for glaucoma development. The risk of developing primary open-angle glaucoma increases approximately 1.73-fold with each decade of life. However, the impact of aging is not evenly distributed across ethnicities and regions.
While individuals of African ancestry demonstrate the highest prevalence across all age groups, European and Hispanic populations show steeper increases in prevalence as age advances. Asia and Africa are expected to experience the most significant growth in total case numbers due to rapidly increasing life expectancy, whereas Europe and North America are projected to see more moderate increases.

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